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Aston Villa vs Leeds: Statistical preview

Gareth is back to break down Aston Villa ahead of the clash with Leeds United

Aston Villa v Reading - Sky Bet Championship Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images

Despite the obvious, trying to find something other than statistics in regards to what can separate these two sides apart from league position is difficult to say the least. Both teams have scored more goals than their xG (expected goals) suggests and have thus ‘over-performed’, but one single statistic does stand out from the rest. Leeds simply haven’t performed, while Villa have!

Leeds have had a very up and down season to say the least and I am sure the Elland Road outfit would have been expecting to challenge for promotion. However, they have lost 11 out of 21 away fixtures so far this season, compared to practically the same amount in the whole of last season (10). This is odd. Still, Leeds have not won in the last 10 games away from home (P10 W0 D3 L7), which is a pretty poor record all in all and suits Aston Villa just fine.

Managerial changes haven’t worked out the way that they were supposed to, and fans have grown restless yet still continue to follow their team with tremendous support across the country.

Possible formations and how Villa can beat Leeds

The graphic below shows first how Leeds have lined up 35 times this season in a 4-2-3-1 and they don’t seem deviate from this shape at all. There will be changes in personnel due to injury, though.

Villa will probably line up in the usual 4-1-4-1 set up which has proved fruitful since switching to this shape in early November. Injuries to John Terry, who Steve Bruce has said this game may come to early given the ankle knock he picked up in the Norwich game, Birkr Bjarnason who pulled out just before the Cardiff game and Axel Tuanzebe who came off injured against Cardiff will probably mean that Mile Jedinak will continue at centre back. This also means that Glenn Whelan will likely to come in for Bjarnason and Neil Taylor coming back in after being left out against Cardiff on Tuesday. Either that or James Bree.

Another formation option could see the returning Jonathan Kodjia join up with Lewis Grabban up front or on the wing in a two-man attack after his impressive cameo coming off the bench against Cardiff. Playing a 4-4-2 would mean that the two Leeds centre backs (likely reserves) have a bit more to think about rather than looking after just Grabban. With Kodija’s link play essential now that he is fit it, this would add something different given Leeds will have scouted Villa in the last few weeks and will be expecting the formation in the first graphic. Who wouldn’t?

Super Jack Grealish will still have licence to support the Villa centre forwards with hopefully as much success as he did against Neil Warnock’s men from across the border. Leeds are not the tallest of sides with the (likely injured) Pontus Jansson being the tallest at over six foot and with Villa having a plethora of height in attacking set pieces this will also be a key battle in the game.

Numbers

Villa vs Leeds: Head to Head

Aston Villa Statistic Leeds United
Aston Villa Statistic Leeds United
13 Home VS Away Wins 7
6 Home VS Away Draws 3
2 Home Losses VS Away Losses 11
Albert Adomah (14) Top Scorer Kemar Roofe, Pierre Lasogga (10)
37 Home/Away NPG Goals Scored 26
18 Home/Away NPG Goals against 34
32.36 Home/Away xG total 22.75
1.51 Home/Away xG per 90 1.06
47.62% Win Chance % (Based on xG per90) % of most likely score 2-1(12.56%) 26.61%
Gareth Cooper

Villa are dominant in the numbers. The most likely score is 2-1 to the Villa, with a 12.56% chance of that scoreline occurring.

UTV.