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The best case scenario in Villa's relegation fight, or, the dead-cat bounce of hope

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Yes yes, the season is over. But what this article presupposes is that it is not.

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Aston Villa are, basically, relegated, right? It's over! There's no way that a team with 16 points in their first 30 matches can do what is necessary to survive. There's no way they can come back, and there is no way that a team that has literally admitted they did not care after sending out butt-tweets of cars can revive themselves.

But... what if? What if there IS a way? Hear me out. I know I sound like a raving lunatic drunk on his own homemade moonshine fighting off imaginary unicorns, but what if Villa can turn this around?

Here's how it could happen.

Best-case horrifying scenario

Alright, here's the squeaky-bum version of this. Aston Villa win four matches. Looking at the schedule, and based on what else has to happen, my guess would be Swansea tomorrow, Bournemouth on April 9, Watford on April 30, and Newcastle on May 7. The only one that HAS to happen here is Newcastle, so it could be them plus Chelsea, Manchester United, and Arsenal for all I care. That brings Villa to 28 points. That's atrocious and should probably end in relegation (this article says that teams with 33 points have a 0% chance of survival).

BUT

It could happen. The three teams to catch are Newcastle United (nine matches left), Norwich City (eight), and Sunderland (nine). They're all really bad teams. Just like Aston Villa. They all also have each other left to play, so there is no hope that all three can end the season on a pointless stretch (well, I mean, it'd be pretty pointless!). That said, we could see the following (and it honestly wouldn't be that surprising):

Newcastle: 0 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses
Norwich: 0 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses
Sunderland: 0 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses

That would mean that they would finish with 26, 27, and 27 points respectively. 28 is bigger than ALL of those numbers. VILLA WOULD SURVIVE.  Is this plausible? HEAVENS NO. But none of this is. Why are you bringing logic to a dream scenario? Go away party ruiner.

Slightly less-terrifying scenario

Alright, what if Villa won five matches? 31 points! THIRTY ONE. That's almost respectable. And it means that we could add three points to Newcastle, Norwich, and Sunderland from above. This looks totally reasonable to me:

Newcastle: 1-2-6
Norwich: 1-2-5
Sunderland 0-5-4

So, Villa beat Newcastle, pick up another win somewhere and presto, survival.

Okay no, we might actually be safe scenario

Villa win six or more matches. If Villa can end up on 34 points, I actually do think they'd be safe this year. The ceiling right now is 40, by the way. Get to 40 and we prepare to win the league next year because we've just outdone Leicester's great escape and made Villa's Greater Escape.

Are there any problems with this hope you are espousing?

NONE. NONE WHATSOEVER.

Oh wait.

Yes.

One.

One itty bitty small problem.

Notice that in the most horrifying of all scenarios Villa still need four wins. We have three ALL YEAR. Currently we average a win every ten matches. Getting four or more from the last eight would be astonishing.

The weird thing is it's not impossible or even all that absurd to imagine Sunderland, Norwich, and Newcastle getting just two points between now and year's end. The tough part is imagining Villa getting anything worthwhile.

So yeah, this is probably false hope. But it's hope! CLING TO IT. UP THE VILLA INTO THE HISTORY BOOKS. BECOME THE WORST TEAM TO EVER SECURE SURVIVAL PLEASE.