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Liverpool and Manchester City title scenarios depend on AVFC

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Aston Villa are suddenly half of the most important match of the season. Here are all the remaining title scenarios.

Alex Livesey

With their stunning draw at Crystal Palace today, Liverpool may have very well watched their chances of winning their first Premier League title go out the window. If they are to have any hope headed into Sunday's season-finale, it will be because of plucky little Aston Villa. The Villans are set to face Manchester City on Wednesday in what may very well be the season's single most important match. Not bad for a team who only achieved safety on Sunday!

So, as we've done for various events in the past few weeks, let's examine all of the title scenarios with an emphasis on the role that Aston Villa have to play. Keep this handy as you watch Wednesday's match so that you have some idea what to expect this weekend.

If Aston Villa lose

Let's face it, this is the most likely scenario. Manchester City have scored 18 more goals at home than Aston Villa have scored in total. But, a Villa loss doesn't necessarily eliminate Liverpool, it just makes them become fans of the other claret and blue team: West Ham United.

Manchester City CAN win the title if:

  • They win on Sunday. They will end the season on 86 points
  • They draw on Sunday AND Liverpool win by fewer than (at least) 10 goals OR draw OR lose
  • The lose on Sunday AND Liverpool draw or lose
Liverpool CAN win the title if:
  • They win on Sunday AND Manchester City lose.
Liverpool CANNOT win the title if:
  • They draw OR lose on Sunday

If Aston Villa draw

Villa have played so far above their heads when playing the league's best teams this season that I could see a draw happening. If it does, life become a little better for Liverpool, though City are still in the driver's seat. Rather amusingly, though, a Villa draw brings life to another team.

Manchester City CAN win the title if:

  • They win on Sunday AND Liverpool win by fewer than (at least) 10 goals OR draw OR lose
  • They draw on Sunday AND Liverpool draw OR lose
  • They lose on Sunday AND Liverpool lose (and City don't lose by 9 more goals than do Liverpool) AND Chelsea (!) draw OR lose
Liverpool can win the title if:
  • They win on Sunday AND Manchester City win (and the combined differential is 10 goals in Liverpool's favor) OR draw OR lose
  • They draw on Sunday AND Manchester City lose AND Chelsea do not win by more than seven goals
Liverpool CANNOT win the title if:
  • The lose on Sunday
Chelsea CAN win the title if:
  • They win on Sunday AND Manchester City lose AND Liverpool lose
  • They win by more than seven goals (hey, they play Cardiff, it's possible) AND Manchester City lose AND Liverpool draw
Chelsea CANNOT win the title if:
  • They lose or draw on Sunday

If Aston Villa win

First and foremost, you will never buy a beer when you are with a Liverpool fan again. If you do have to, you leave them as a friend, because they owe you for life. Also, this is the least likely outcome in the world, and if we know anything about Aston Villa this season you should bet everything you have on this. And suddenly we all have to worry (seriously) about Chelsea again.

Manchester City CAN win the title if:

  • They win on Sunday AND Liverpool lose OR draw
  • They draw on Sunday AND Liverpool lose AND Chelsea lose OR draw
Manchester City CANNOT win the title if:
  • They lose on Sunday
Liverpool CAN win the title if:
  • They win on Sunday
  • They draw on Sunday AND Manchester City draw or lose AND Chelsea do not win by more than seven goals
  • They lose on Sunday AND Manchester City lose AND Chelsea lose OR draw
Chelsea CAN win the title if:
  • They win on Sunday AND Manchester City draw OR lose AND Liverpool lose
  • They win by more than seven on Sunday AND Manchester City draw OR lose AND Liverpool draw OR lose
Chelsea CANNOT win the title if:
  • They draw or lose on Sunday
So there you have it. Welcome aboard the Good Ship Aston Villa, Liverpool fans. We're glad to have you cheering so heartily for us to win! And Chelsea fans, it's okay to join us, too. We know your dreams are shattered, but we offer hope.