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By the numbers: Villa have to wait to guarantee safety

Aston Villa are practically guaranteed to be in the Premier League next year, but they've got to wait for one more result to be totally certain.

Ross Kinnaird

You've seen the breaking news banner on the site. You've read the thousands of happy tweets from fans. You know the news: Villa are safe! And in reality, they likely are.

But it's worth noting that they are still mathematically able to be relegated. It would take a stunning turn of events, but Norwich could still catch Villa with two wins and a massive goal differential swing. Currently, Villa sit at 38 points with a -15 differential, which Norwich have 32 and -32 respectively. So the Canaries would need to win out (at Chelsea and home to Arsenal) by massive margins, while Villa lost out by the same.

And even if that happened, Villa may still not be doomed, given that Sunderland, West Bromwich Albion, and Hull City are still between them in Norwich. So if any of them lose out (or get fewer than 2 points for WBA and 3 for Sunderland) they'd still finish below Villa.

All of this is to say that, mathematically, Villa could still be relegated. But it would take events such as we've never seen in the Premier League before. And this whole discussion is moot if Norwich lose or draw tomorrow, which is the most likely outcome of their trip to Stamford Bridge anyhow.

So go ahead, keep celebrating. But remember: you're still cheering for Chelsea tomorrow. Then it'll be certain.