FanPost

Anatomy of a mid-table team

Villa haven't had a mid-table finish since the glory days of Houllier. - Clive Mason/Getty Images

Editor's note: This is an absolutely fantastic FanPost written by Tyler. Join us in the comments to discuss!

The last few seasons have been difficult for Villa fans. Whether you were singing faithfully at Villa Park, travelling to support the Villa boys on the road, or waking up at 6:00am for the occasional early morning kick-off, the reward for your support has too often been a disappointing, and often goalless, Villa loss. That feeling of inevitable disappointment has basically defined the duration of my Villa fandom.

My first full season supporting Aston Villa was in 2010, the final season of the free-spending Martin O'Neill era. After initially trying to choose between Everton and Liverpool, the dynamic talent of Ashley Young and Aston villa caught my eye. Along with Ashley Young, Villa's lineup showcased the blistering pace of Gabby Agbonlahor, the endlessly energetic James Milner, the devastating left foot of Stewart Downing, a lovable giant in John Carew, with all of the strings being orchestrated by the entertainingly diminutive Martin O'Neill. Villa would finish that first year in 6th place on 64 points, it's been a ulcer inducing roller coaster ever since. That next season, James Milner was sold to Manchester City in a deal that brought back perennial disappointment Stephen Ireland in return, Martin O'Neill resigned before the team played a Premier League game, and Gerard Houllier was installed as manager. The promising Houllier era didn't last long, but it provided my first experience with fawning over academy players as Barry Bannan and Marc Albrighton were brought into the first-team fold, it was also the first time I nervously experienced a transfer window and celebrated as Aston Villa broke their transfer record with the signing of Darren Bent. Unfortunately, Houllier was unable to continue as manager, and after years of unsuccessfully trying to finance a push up the table into the Champions League, Randy Lerner closed his checkbook. The next four years of austerity were overseen by Alex McLeish (one dreadful season) and Paul Lambert (one promising step forward, and two giant steps back), during this period Ashley Young and Stewart Downing were sold and transfers were limited to cheaper options across Europe.

Fortunately for the Villa faithful, the dark clouds of the past four seasons seem to be on their way out. With the installment of Tim Sherwood, the sale of Christian Benteke, and a roster virtually free of bad contracts (Yeah, I'm looking at you N'Zogbia), Villa appear to be in a position to charge up the table away from the relegation dogfight and into mid-table obscurity.

With the Benteke money in the coffers, Sherwood & Co. have added promising young talent in the form of three Jordan's (Amavi, Ayew, and potentially Veretout), Premier League veterans Micah Richards, Scott Sinclair, and presumably Emmanuel Adebayor, and rounded out the squad with Mark Bunn and Jose Angel Crespo. With this more balanced squad, Aston Villa should be realistically targeting a mid-table finish, clear of the relegation scrap for the first time in a long time. Broadly speaking, a mid-table finish could extend to all those teams above the magical 40 point mark with their head above the relegation waters, and to those below the 60 point mark that could signify a team challenging for European places. This broad definition of mid-table isn't particularly useful for describing the season I envision for Aston Villa, however, as it would be wildly optimistic to suggest Villa will be competing with Southampton and Swansea based on our most recent record, and embarrassingly pessimistic to think Villa's goal this season should be to duplicate last season's Leicester City or West Brom.

When I think of mid-table, I think of the "No Man's Land" that exists between 10th and 12th place, home of the likes of Stoke City, where the last two months of the season are fairly inconsequential, with safety ensured and Europe out of reach. To the typical observer, this mid-table obscurity may seem like the least interesting position in the Premiership, but it would be a virtual paradise to the Villa fan whose fingernails might never recover after the last four seasons.

So what does it take to end the season in one of these cozy mid-table positions? Looking at the last 15 years of the Premier League, you need approximately 45-50 points. This number is consistent with the Premier League's most recent history, with Crystal Palace finishing 10th last season on 48 points and West Ham finishing 12th on 47 points, and with the most recent five-year window where 12th averaged 45 points and 10th averaged 47 points.

EPL 2000-2015

AVG WINS:

AVG DRAWS:

AVG LOSS:

AVG GF:

AVG GA:

AVG GD:

AVG PTS:

Champion

27

7

4

82

31

51

88

2nd

24

8

6

76

34

41

80

3rd

22

8

8

68

36

33

75

4th

20

10

9

64

39

25

69

5th

18

10

10

57

42

15

64

6th

17

11

11

56

43

13

61

7th

16

10

12

52

45

8

57

8th

14

11

13

49

46

3

54

9th

14

10

14

47

50

-3

52

10th

13

9

16

47

53

-6

49

11th

12

11

15

45

52

-7

48

12th

12

10

16

45

54

-8

47

13th

12

10

16

43

51

-8

45

14th

11

10

17

42

55

-12

43

15th

11

9

18

41

58

-16

42

16th

9

12

17

39

58

-17

39

17th

9

11

18

40

60

-21

38

18th

8

10

20

40

64

-24

35

19th

8

9

21

38

69

-31

32

20th

5

10

23

33

71

-38

26

EPL 2011-2015

AVG WINS:

AVG DRAWS:

AVG LOSS:

AVG GF:

AVG GA:

AVG GD:

AVG PTS:

Champion

26

7

5

86

36

51

86

2nd

24

7

7

82

38

44

80

3rd

22

8

8

70

37

33

75

4th

21

9

8

68

40

28

72

5th

19

9

9

59

47

12

67

6th

18

9

11

57

46

11

63

7th

16

10

11

58

41

17

59

8th

14

10

14

50

47

3

52

9th

13

11

14

47

52

-4

50

10th

13

8

17

45

54

-9

47

11th

12

11

16

44

56

-11

46

12th

11

11

16

51

57

-6

45

13th

11

10

17

41

48

-8

43

14th

11

11

17

45

57

-12

42

15th

10

10

18

43

63

-20

41

16th

9

13

16

38

58

-19

39

17th

9

10

19

41

60

-20

38

18th

9

10

19

38

64

-26

36

19th

8

9

21

43

73

-31

33

20th

6

10

22

37

72

-34

29

Other than getting an estimate at the point total needed to reach that wonderful mid-table paradise, what other information can we glean from the basic Premier League table? Over the last 15 years, those teams have scored approximately 45 goals a season, and surrendered between 50 and 60 goals. Last season, Palace scored 47 and conceded 51, and Swansea, Stoke, Everton and West Ham were all pretty much within that range. These are the totals that Villa should aspire to, 45 goals scored and less than 55 goals conceded.

The goals conceded tally shouldn't be terribly difficult to obtain. Aston Villa conceded 57 goals last year, and we can all think of a few goals that should have never happened (Goalkeeping errors, stupid late fouls just OUTSIDE of the box, stupid late fouls INSIDE of the box). But Villa were an incredibly inept side that only managed to score 31 goals last season and sold their Option A, B, & C from the last few campaigns to Liverpool. How do the other sides manage to achieve 45 goals without a striker comparable to Benteke? Balance. Balanced scoring throughout the team.

Crystal Palace scored 47 league goals last campaign, with 5 coming from defenders, 19 goals coming from the midfield, and 22 goals coming from 5 different forwards (they also benefited from 1 own goal). West Ham were similarly balanced, scoring 44 league goals, a combined 20 of which came from defense and midfield, and another 23 being delivered by a combination of 5 forwards (+1 own goal). Does Aston Villa have what it takes to replicate those kind of numbers? Let's take a look.

Aston Villa: Wins Draws Losses Goals For Goals Against Goal Difference Points
2011 12 12 14 48 59 -11 48
2012 7 17 14 37 53 -16 38
2013 10 11 17 47 69 -22 41
2014 10 8 20 39 61 -22 38
2015 10 8 20 31 57 -16 38

Aston Villa have only reached the 45 goal mark twice in the last 5 seasons. 2011's 48 goals resulted in a comfortable mid-table finish, while 2013's 47 goals in Lambert's first year were not enough to cover for the disastrous 69 goals allowed during that campaign. After managing only 31 goals last season, and losing Benteke this Summer, it is reasonable to suggest Villa will struggle to come up with 45 goals, but i'm optimistic Tactics Tim has the players he needs to get it done.

After watching the preseason matches this Summer, I think it can be safely assumed that Tim will field 1 Goalkeeper (Although, Tim does have a bit of crazy about him), 4 defenders, 4 midfielders, and 2 forwards. I do not envision Villa playing any 3 man defenses this year, there isn't enough quality depth in central defense for that to be an option. I also don't expect Tim to return to the 5 man midfield he showed at the end of last season, there are 5 quality forwards at the club (Ayew, Sinclair, Agbonlahor, Kozak, and presumably Adebayor) he will manage to pick 2 of them, even it's Sinclair, Gabby, or Ayew deployed on the wing.

With 45 goals scored being the target, can Tim pick 4 defenders, 4 midfielders, and 2 forwards to get the job done? I think so. Palace picked up 5 goals from their defenders, and I don't think that is too much to ask for from Villa. Richards has out-jumped seemingly every human he's faced in pre-season, and Clark has a knack for scoring goals. Bacuna and Amavi have each scored in their career, and even Hutton chipped in with a goal last season. The defense should be good for 5 goals.

What about the midfield? Many have pointed to the lack of goals from midfield under the reign of Lambert, but there were signs of encouragement to suggest Tim may be able to get some production from the engine room. Jack Grealish made his way into the first team at the tail end of last year's campaign, and although he hasn't scored yet, it's not unreasonable to expect him to chip in with 5 goals if he manages to start for a full campaign. Same could be said for Carles Gil. He was cut out after Tim arrived last year, but managed to score during his few appearances under Lambert. He has been one of the star performers of preseason, and will get his chance this year, 5 goals wouldn't be terribly surprising from Carles. Idrissa Gueye steps into the squad as a direct replacement for Fabian Delph, he scored a few outstanding goals last term. Villa may struggle to replace the character of the departed captain, but won't struggle to replace his goal scoring production as he failed to find the back of the net during his 28 league appearances last year. Mr. Sherwood managed to get Tom Cleverley on the score sheet on a couple of occasions last season with his late runs forward, supposedly a strength of newboy Jordan Veretout. Perhaps the young Frenchman can duplicate his goal scoring form from Ligue 1 and chip in with a couple of goals. Westwood and Sanchez have sporadically found the score sheet, they are surely good for a couple between them. Gary Gardner is known for his goal scoring exploits if he can ever get on the pitch. N'Zogbia shows up once in a blue moon for a nice counter attack or free kick goal. Who knows, maybe Alexander Tonev sprints on the pitch like a fan and blasts a shot in the general vicinity of a goal. There are plenty of options, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Villa midfield can combine for 15 goals in the aggregate.

5 from defense, 15 from midfield, that leaves a whopping 25 goals for Villa's forward line to contribute without Benteke. Difficult? Yes. Impossible? Absolutely not.

Now, I'm not a betting man (mostly because student loans are the bane of my existence), but if I was offered Adebayor + Ayew at 16 1/2 goals, I would take the over. Adebayor, for better or worse, has scored everywhere he has played. Ayew is coming off his best season of his career at a struggling side in France. I could easily see Adebayor grabbing 10 goals and Ayew contributing something like 7 goals, 4 assists deployed as a second striker or winger. That leaves 8 goals to be tallied up by Gabby, Sinclair, & Kozak (or the possibility of an over-performing midfielder/defender). I'm aware of the constant criticism of Gabby Agbonlahor, and I too complain about his questionable finishing, but he will manage to create enough problems with his pace/power to score a few times this season. Scott Sinclair may not be the most creative player, but he is a direct dribbling winger that gets in dangerous areas and knows how to find the back of the net. Libor Kozak has already found the net 3 times this pre-season, including two excellent goals in the last outing. The only thing that will hold Libor back from contributing is playing time, if Adebayor doesn't pan out, I have little doubt that Libor could fill his boots and knock in 10 goals next year. 10 from Adebayor, 7 from Ayew, 3 from Agbonlahor, 3 from Sinclair, and 2 from Kozak gets you to 25 goals from the forwards and 45 for the team.

45 goals and mid-table obscurity, does it get any better than that? I long for the days of only worrying about Villa's result, and i'm betting those days return this season. With the high wages off the books, and the Benteke money being spent to build a more balanced squad, things appear to be turning around under the reign of Tom Fox and Tim Sherwood. Long may it continue, Up The Villa.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any sort of approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions held by the editors of this site.

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