Are Villa safe yet? We've done the drop math and have an answer!

Christopher Lee

One last update on relegation chances before we head into the season's most crucial weekend.

We've already looked at all of the scenarios that Aston Villa could use to obtain safety this weekend, and come to the conclusion that the club's smartest move would be simply to win. Do that and we can stop discussing relegation. But until they assure themselves a place in the Premier League next season, the idea of relegation is one that is on almost every fan's mind.

So here is our final update before the weekend of the projected safety line and the likelihood of each team getting there. These numbers have changed slightly since our Sunday look, because we are using betting odds as a stand-in for probability. The numbers weren't always in Aston Villa's favor, but I feel intuitively as if the changed odds more accurately reflect each team's chances. Let's get right to the numbers!

Projected final table:

Position Team Projected points
15th West Bromwich Albion 39.03
16th Aston Villa 37.06
17th Sunderland 35.88
18th Fulham 33.92
19th Norwich City 33.26
20th Cardiff City 31.65

Since Sunday's update, the odds have dropped Villa by almost a full point. This reflects the fact that they no longer are showing Villa with as good of a chance of winning at Tottenham as losing. Nevertheless, even in these scenarios, 37 points seem a very real possibility for the club.

Projected safety line

As I've said all along, I think that 35 points will be safe this year. This reflects my view that, even if Aston Villa lose out, they will likely still not be relegated. As I've tried to emphasize before, this has nothing to do with Villa being any good, and everything to do with the rest of the teams being very bad.

Team % chance to reach 35 points
West Bromwich Albion 100
Aston Villa 100
Sunderland 76.31
Fulham 36.36
Norwich City 27.56
Cardiff City 3.39

Poor Cardiff. I wanted to throw one more table out there though. What if I've been wrong all along and the safety line is just a bit higher than I've thought? Here are the chances of each team reaching 36 and 37 points.

Team % chance to reach 36 points % chance to reach 37 points
West Bromwich Albion 100 90.27
Aston Villa 84.53 61.23
Sunderland 57.43 32.86
Fulham 14.87 14.87
Norwich City 5.88 1.34
Cardiff City 3.39 0


Only two teams have a better than 50% chance of reaching both of those marks, and Aston Villa are one of them. If Villa lose and everybody else wins this weekend, things look a bit dicey for the club. But even if safety moves a bit higher, Villa still are likely to achieve it.

Discussion

  • I'll just put it here again, because it can't be said enough: if Villa win tomorrow, we can ignore this forever.
  • Also remember that a combination of Norwich losing and Fulham and Cardiff losing or drawing will provide safety for Villa.
  • Just a gentle reminder that these are probabilities. Of course, anything could change. Just because the numbers suggest that Aston Villa should be safe doesn't mean that they are.
So what do you think? How are you feeling about the bottom of the table now, and who do you think will be dropping? Let us know in the comments!
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