Betting Guide Part Two: Advanced Betting

Alan Crowhurst

A more in-depth look at soccer betting, to go with the basic guide and to continue with our weekly betting series.

Last week we introduced newbies into the wonderful world of football betting. Continuing with our series on betting, it is always fun to explore some trickier types of bets that are available to place. Obviously you are able to add any type of bet to your acca, and some of these are rather difficult so they provide decent returns. Last time we talked about the basics, including Full Time Result, BTTS, and Over/Under bets.

Other markets that vary in difficulty include Correct Score (CS), First Goal Scorer (FGS), Anytime Goal Scorer (AGS), and Half Time/Full Time Result (HT/FT). Correct Score means you have to predict the exact score that the match will be at full time. A nil-nil draw is usually about 8/1, depending on how many goals the teams usually score. First Goal Scorer is harder than Anytime Goal Scorer, as sometimes defenders score from corners but would have higher odds than picking an in-form striker to score anytime. Something that is called a Scorecast involves picking the player who will score the first goal, and then the full time result. You can see these bets with odds as high as 50/1, but obviously are incredibly difficult to hit. Picking the HT/FT result is tough, but if you feel that a team may be winning at half but then end up losing this may be a good bet for you. With these bets normally being difficult to win, you probably don’t want to go out there staking more than a few euros on it. Also, the only bets you would want to toss on an acca would be the Anytime Goal Scorer.

If you are actually looking to make a profit, and not just throw money around and make games more interesting, you may want to look into doing a few things.

First, make a log of all the bets you make so you can track what worked and what didn’t.

Second, become very familiar with at least one league. This is especially important when creating accumulators. Usually I try to stay away from Serie A because there are seemingly more draws than other leagues. While this may not necessarily be true all of the time, it has been a coupon buster in my experience in the past. I can recall last spring placing a seven-fold acca and everyone won except Juventus, who had over 80 points and were playing at home to a team that had 40 points and ended up drawing at home. I lost a potential return of 90 euro from a bet of 2. That is why I don’t like to pick the Italian league very often. Also when you are familiar with a league, you know what teams are more likely to win at home or not win on the road.

A good bet can be the Double Chance (a team to either win or draw).

A strategy that I haven’t really tested but seems that it is effective in returns if continued effort is made is to back underdogs who are home. In the Premier League, this can be a good strategy because some teams win considerably more often at home than on the road. Now obviously this doesn’t happen all the time, but since the odds are usually at least 3 or 4/1 for a bottom half team to beat a top 8 team, the returns can be good in the long run if you are using a consistent stake (usually minimum stake) to back the underdog against the big boys.

Another thing to consider is how much the draw happens. Nothing is more agonizing than a draw busting your coupon, so try to minimize the chance this will happen. Middle to lower sides often draw quite a few games more than top sides so take this into consideration. Make sure to pay attention to recent form. I like to use the tables on the BBC’s website, because they show the last 10 games and the score. When looking at sides who are involved in European or domestic cup competitions it is important to see which players may be rested for a potentially more important fixture coming up.

A couple final things to take into consideration are injuries, suspensions, and derby games. Injuries and suspensions are obvious but can be overlooked. The absence of a captain can be a massive blow to a side and should not be underestimated. Derby matches are usually tight affairs no matter what the recent form, and sometimes it can be a good bet to take the away side, as the visiting team can be motivated to overcome the hostile crowd.

Remember to stick with what works for you. If you are in doubt over a team, just drop them from your coupon. It is better to have missed out 5 extra bucks than to lose your whole ticket from a bad result.

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